Modeling Impact of the Health Finance and Governance (HFG) Project

Resource Type: Publication
Authors: Kenya Datari, Rachel Sanders, Shamima Akhter, and Catherine Connor
Published: September 2018

Resource Description: HFG and its partner Avenir Health conducted a rigorous exercise to estimate the impact of the project’s health systems strengthening activities on its overall goal: increased use of priority health services. We used Spectrum, a suite of modeling tools developed by Avenir Health and partners, to quantify impact on mortality and morbidity based on changes in the coverage of specific priority health services due to the project’s activities aimed at improving access, quality, and use of health care. Given the diverse activities of HFG and the challenge of establishing a measurable causal link between project activities and coverage effects, we adopted a conservative approach and chose for this impact modeling exercise a subset of HFG activities for which a direct link was apparent. Based on these parameters, the exercise was conducted for eight country programs: Bangladesh, Cote d’Ivoire, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Haiti, Nigeria, Senegal, and Vietnam.

Using a methodical approach, we analyzed individual project activities in these countries and the expected effects on service coverage to estimate the impact on morbidity and mortality. We examined how our activities, including implementing strategies for improved human resources for health, operationalizing health insurance schemes, rolling out packages of health services, and using costed plans and packages to advocate for more financial resources, will increase access to health services, which in turn will lead to greater coverage of health services among targeted populations and ultimately to reduced morbidity and mortality. We modeled the impact of HFG’s activities by quantifying the number of deaths that were averted as a result of HFG-supported strategies and reforms.

The modeling results indicate that continued implementation of health systems strengthening strategies like those HFG supported would bring significant expansion of health care coverage and enhanced health outcomes.

This report presents country- and activity-specific results and the methodology for estimating coverage changes and impact. We hope this modeling exercise adds to the global understanding of how the impact of health systems strengthening can be measured. It provides powerful evidence on why investment and effort in strengthening health systems must continue.


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